An Integrated Approach towards Building a Simulation Model Supporting the Management of the Passenger Transportation System. Part 2 – Case Study

Abstract

This article presents a simulation model designated as an advising and forecasting tool for designing, redesigning and managing ground-based transportation systems. It considers both public and private transport means. It enables visualisation of the results of changes in the transportation network such as a new transportation mode, schedule adjustment, technology improvements on shuttle speed and other modifications that can influence the effectiveness of the transportation network. The simulation tool enables predictions of future passenger flow size for different means of transport. The simulation tool was developed after thorough analysis of interdependencies between variables in the transportation network model built upon an econometric model, artificial neural network and mathematical model. The simulation model was tested on the real data and determined to be very effective, useful and flexible in use. Successive phases of the model development proved that development of a reliable advising and forecasting tool requires a combination of different methods.