Multiplication of Air Accidents Frequency and Hazard Desirability Coefficients for ICAO Safety Risk Tolerability Matrix Solution

Sergey Pavlovich Borsuk, Oleksiy Reva, Volodymyr Kharchenko

Abstract


Using mathematical method of priorities arrangement, also known as problem “about leader”, air accidents frequency and hazard desirability coefficients were found. Those coefficients are proposed by ICAO for safety risk tolerability matrix solution. Integral index of mentioned parameters combinations hazard is found with help of Harrington desirability function. Risk levels determination index is introduced for researched matrix.

Keywords


flight safety, tolerability matrix, frequency and hazard event desirability coefficients, Harrington function, risk level determination criteria

Full Text:

PDF

References


Global aviation safety plan. – Montreal, Canada. – June 2009. – 23 с.

Reva А. N. Human factor and flight safety: (Research of proactive influence) : mo-nograph / А. N. Reva, К. М. Tymishev, А. А. Bekmuhmambetov; scientific editorship А. N. Reva, К. М. Tymishev. – Almati, 2006.– 242 p.

Kharchenko V.P. Solution taking by air-navigation system operator: mohograph / V.P. Kharchenko, T.F. Shmeluova, Y.V. Skirda. – Kirovograd: KFA NAU, 2012. – 292 p.

ICAO: Safety Management Manual (SMM): Doc. ICAO 9859 – AN / 474. – Mon-treal, Canada, 2009

Fomenko Y. М. Risk triangle in system analysis of ait traffic controllers professional activity / Y. М. Fomenko // Problems of infor-matization and control: scientific digest. / Min-istry of science and education of Ukraine, Na-tional aviation university. – К.: NAU, 2006. - № 3. – P. 147-151.

Reva О. M. Proactive risk management on basis of human factor in civil aviation / О. М. Reva, S. І. Osadchiy, О. М. Medvedenko, Y. М, Fomenko // Railroad transport of Ukraine: theoretical and practical magazine, 2008. – № 6. – P. 54 59.

Zadeh L. The concept of a linguistic varia-ble and its application to approximate reasoning: translate from English. N. I. Ringo / K. Zadeh; editorship. N. N. Moiseeva, S. A. Orlovskogo. - М. : Mir, 1976. - 165 p.

Kaufman А. Introduction into fuzzy set theory: translated for French. V. B. Kuzmina/ А. Kaufman; editorship. S. I. Travkina. – М.: Radio and communications, 1982. – 432 p.

Polojenets G.A. Exploitation factors in-fluence on the flight safety taking into account their interaction [Manuscript]: summary. dis. PhD. 05.22.20, National aviation university. – K.: NVF Slavutich-Delphi, 2013. – 20 p.

ICAO: Threat and Error Management (TEM) in Air Traffic Control : Cir. ICAO 314 – AN / 178. – Montreal, Canada, 2008

Introduction to Safety Management Systems for Air Operators [Text]: Advisory Circular No 120-92, FAA USA, 2006.

Sharov V.D. About some mathematical and logical restrictions for risk matrices ap-pliance in the flight safety management system [Text] / V.D. Sharov// Scientific bulletin of MGTU GA Air transport exploitation series.. – М.: MGTU GA, 2009. - № 149. – P. 179-181.

Mushik E. Technical solutions accep-tance methods [Text]: translated from german V.M. Ivanova / E. Mushik, P. Miller. – М.: Mir, 1990. – 208 p.

Cox L. What’s Wrong with Risk Ma-trices? [Text] / L. Cox // Risk Analyses, Vol. 28, No 2, 2008, p. 497-512.

Levashov S.P. Professional risk expert estimation method [Text] / S.P. Levashov// Lifeware safety: scientifically-practical and educationally-methodical magazine, 2009. - № 1 (97). – P. 14-16.

Adler Y.P. Experiment planning while searching for optimal conditions [Text] / Y.P. Adler, E.V. Markova, Y.V. Granovskiy. – М.: Nauka, 1976. – 278 p.

Reva O.M. Estimation scales point fuz-zyfication/defuzzyfication procedure [Text] / V.V. Kamishin, O.М. Reva, L.M. Makarenko, О.М. Medvedenko// Electronics and control sys-temsa: scientific magazine. – К.: NAU-print, 2012. – № 3 (33). – P. 53-62.

Berj К. Graph theory and its appliance [Text]: translated from french. / К. Berj. - М.: IL, 1962. – 320 p.

Bloomberg, V.А. Which solution is better? Priorities rearrangement method [Text] / V.А. Bloomberg, V.F. Glushchenko. – L.: Lenizdat, 1982. – 160 p.

Reva A. N. Urgent area of ICAO “risk triangle” solution proactive models development / А. N. Reva, V. I. Vdovichenko, S. P. Borsuk [and others] // Modern transport power-plants, technologies and maintenance equipment: 4-th Ukrainian theoretical and practical conference. – Kherson, 9-11 october 2013, - Kherson: HDMA, 2013. – P. 334-338.

Chinchenko Y. V. Riaks and threats es-timation on the air traffic controllers workplace with help of fuzzy sets / Y. V. Chinchenko // National aviation university bulletin: scientific magazine. / Ministry of science and education of Ukraine, National aviation university – К.: NAU-print, 2011. - № 2. – P.44-49.

Dubois D. Fuzzy sets and systems - Theory and applications. / D. Dubois, H. Prade; Academic press, New York, 1980. – 393 p.

Reva О. М. Fuzzy model of air traffic controller attitude to risk of potentially conflict situation happening / О. М. Reva, S. P. Borsuk // Ministry of science and education of Ukraine, National airspace university named after M. E. Zjukovskiy «HAI». – H., 2013. - № 10 (107). – P.214-221.

Reva О. М. Air traffic controllers preten-sion level with workload parameters / О. М. Reva, B. М. Mirzoev, P. S. Mukhtarov, S. S. Nasirov// Air-space technique and technology: theoretical practical magazine. / Ministry of science and education of Ukraine, National air-space university named after M. E. Zjukovskiy «HAI». – H., 2013. - № 8 (105). – P. 273-281


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.