A PROGNOSTIC MODEL OF DIESEL FUEL CONSUMPTION FOR RAILBUSES

Izabela Dziaduch

Abstract


In this article, a model for prediction of diesel fuel consumption by railbuses is presented. In order to create the model, results of measurements of the average fuel consumption of eight dual mode railbuses of type X (manufactured by the same producer) are used. The usefulness of the indicators method in additive and  multiplicative version is assessed. For both models, the percentage share of the trend, seasonality, and irregular (random) components are analysed and the results for the multiplicative version are given.

Keywords


prediction of diesel fuel consumption; indicators method; case study; dual mode railbus

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References


Dittmann P.: Prognozowanie w przedsiębiorstwie. Metody i ich zastosowanie. Oficyna Ekonomiczna, Kraków 2004.

Dziaduch I., Lichota A.: Model szeregu czasowego z wahaniami sezonowymi w prognozowaniu zużycia oleju napędowego dla autobusów szynowych. Prace Naukowe Politechniki Warszawskiej. Transport. 2013, z. 98.

Sobczyk M.: Prognozowanie. Teoria. Przykłady. Zadania. Placet, Warszawa 2008.


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